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I love these posts by William Hertling as he charts a path towards AI development. If you haven’t read Will’s novels on a future AI, you really should. 
Recent Rate of Computer Processing Growth

If computer processing speeds fail to increase exponentially, as they have for the last forty years, this will throw off many different predictions for the future, and dramatically decreases the likelihood of human-grade AI arising.
According to that, the decline in processing rate increases is isolated to the last fiveyears.Five years isn’t much of a long term trend, and there are some processors missing from the end of the matrix. The Intel Xeon X5675, a 12 core processor isn’t shown, and it’s twice as powerful as the Intel Core i7 4770k that’s the bottom row on the MIPS table. If we substitute the Xeon processor, we find the growth rate from 2008 to 2012 was 31% annually, a more respectable improvement.However, I’ve been tracking technology trends for a while (see my post on How to Predict the Future), and I try to use only those computers and devices I’ve personally owned. There’s always something faster out there, but it’s not what people have in their home, which is what I’m interested in.

I love these posts by William Hertling as he charts a path towards AI development. If you haven’t read Will’s novels on a future AI, you really should. 

Recent Rate of Computer Processing Growth

If computer processing speeds fail to increase exponentially, as they have for the last forty years, this will throw off many different predictions for the future, and dramatically decreases the likelihood of human-grade AI arising.

According to that, the decline in processing rate increases is isolated to the last fiveyears.

Five years isn’t much of a long term trend, and there are some processors missing from the end of the matrix. The Intel Xeon X5675, a 12 core processor isn’t shown, and it’s twice as powerful as the Intel Core i7 4770k that’s the bottom row on the MIPS table. If we substitute the Xeon processor, we find the growth rate from 2008 to 2012 was 31% annually, a more respectable improvement.

However, I’ve been tracking technology trends for a while (see my post on How to Predict the Future), and I try to use only those computers and devices I’ve personally owned. There’s always something faster out there, but it’s not what people have in their home, which is what I’m interested in.

4 Notes

  1. tacanderson posted this
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